How Bayes' Theorem Helped Me Win Fantasy League Football

So I'm home and I got back through the Man United traffic who won tonight. Not that I follow football. That said I did play fantasy football last year and I was musing about the fact that, given my low level of knowledge of the sport, I still came third out of about fifty in last years' College of Air Traffic Control league. I told them it was just a simple application of Bayes' Theorem but they didn't believe me.

Just looking at the following:

© Wolfram Inc.

one can clearly see that one could apply this to selecting football players for the team. For those of you baffled (and still you're reading?) this equation basically quantifies the following statement: "If the player is playing well and scoring lots of points frequently and reliably then he is likely to continue to do so". Exactly how likely can be calculated using the above formula. So there you go, that's how I came third.